"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right."

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This is where I'm supposed to stick random tidbits of information about myself.

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MentalBlocks
Throwing Mental Blocks at Glass Constructions
 
Friday, October 03, 2003  
Way cool--turns out the Hindenburg explosion was not caused by the hydrogen. I've been watching "History's Mysteries" on The History Channel, and they've got a story about Addison Bain, a former NASA researcher who got the bug to figure out the Hindenburg disaster. Sounds to me like he's got it figured out. The story has always been that a nearby thunderstorm somehow caused an explosion in the hydrogen gas bags that suspended the dirigible. Mr. Bain apparently realized one day that there is no way this could have happened. In order for hydrogen to undergo "rapid oxidation" (a.k.a. an explosion), it needs, well, oxygen. There was no oxygen to speak of in the gas bags on board, so there couldn't have been an explosion without a large opening in one of the gas bags to let air in to mix oxygen with the hydrogen. That's why the Hindenburg had managed to accumulate a darn good safety record thus far--the bags were gas tight.

Well, Mr. Bain ended up acquiring a small piece of the Hindenburg's skin from a collector. A piece of that bright, shiny skin. That shiny aluminum skin. That skin that turns out to be made from a mixture of aluminum, iron oxide, and a paint base. Sound familiar? Depending on how you look at it, that's either solid rocket fuel, or thermite. If it gets hot, it goes boom, and you simply cannot put it out.

I can think of lots of ways to light this stuff off, but from what I can tell Mr. Bain thinks that the entire vehicle received a static charge while flying through a nearby thunderstorm. When the crew threw down mooring lines to the ground crew to help with the landing, the craft's aluminum frame was grounded, but the frame was electrically insulated from the skin. Thus, the skin was charged while the frame was grounded, and at some point there was an arc between the two with enough energy to ignite the skin. Eyewitnesses reported seeing "St. Elmo's Fire" around the Hindenburg before the explosion. This is a phenomenon that results from a high static charge ionizing the surrounding air, indicating the high charge contained in the skin.

Regardless of the proximate cause, the failure was in the flammable skin, and Mr. Bain also found archival material to prove that the Zeppelin corporation knew within a year that the skin was the problem, but the covered it up. For both propaganda and liability reasons, they needed people to believe that the hydrogen was the only issue--they only used hydrogen because most of the helium deposits in the world were found in the U.S., which refused to sell it to Germany at the time.

But as it turns out, the craft would have burned and crashed even if it had used helium, because of the enormous area of thermite-soaked canvas that formed the skin of the Hindenburg.

11:45 PM

 
This does not sound good. Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez>, the "commander of military forces in Iraq", says that resistance groups in Iraq are becoming more aggressive.
"There is still some intense fighting to be done, especially out in the west," he said. "We should not be surprised if one of these mornings we wake up and . . . there has been a major firefight with some casualties or a significant terrorist attack that kills significant numbers of people."

Sanchez said the US-led forces are engaging resistance groups 15 to 20 times a day, on average, with as many as 25 incidents on some days. Military spokesmen have consistently cited lower figures, about 13 a day.

The general added that the resistance was showing signs of improved organization. Though most attacks against US forces are being carried out by small, locally based groups apparently acting on their own, there are indications that the resistance is beginning to operate under a broader, more regional control, Sanchez said.

He also says that there have been more foreign fighters and terrorists "involved in the attacks". I'm going to keep an eye on this, and try to figure out what it means.

There is this comment, from the same article, that does not sound good:
At the United Nations, Secretary General Kofi Annan told a closed-door gathering of Security Council members that the world body must be given a leading role in shaping Iraq's political transition or it would not be involved in the nation at all, according to several diplomats and UN officials who attended the meeting. Annan has been seeking a major role for the UN in helping Iraqis draft a constitution and hold elections.

I still question how, exactly, an international organization that cannot bring itself to make a distinction between abusive dictatorships and free democracies can possibly have anything useful to say about a new constitution for Iraq.

By way of Matt Drudge

2:58 PM

 
I'm shocked! Shocked! Stratfor is reporting that Polish troops have found French-made Roland short-range anti-aircraft missiles in an ammo dump in Iraq. The missiles were produced in 2003. Stratfor also says the list of countries that use the Roland system is Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Iraq, Nigeria, Qatar, Spain, Venezuela and the United States. The U.S. will be hitting somebody over the head at the Elysee for information on those lot numbers, I'm sure. Stratfor sums up:
The discovery will not cause a complete breach of French-U.S. relations -- unless, of course, it is discovered that Paris did in fact sell the weapons to Iraq in early 2003 -- not impossible, but unlikely. What it will do is help the U.S outflank France in the Security Council and further erode French global influence.

2:41 PM

 
Lots of Kay-blogging over at Andrew Sullivan. The gist of the report--no real WMD yet, but there was definitely an intact weapons research program in place with mothballed production procedures and the people to make it happen. In addition, there was apparently a lot of physical equipment related to long range missiles verboten by the U.N. Sullivan's summation:
Could we have contained this indefinitely? If we'd wanted to continue to starve an entire country, make a mockery of U.N. resolutions, give new life to one of the most vicious dictatorships on the planet, and leave open the risk of this shadow but viable WMD program coming into the hands of any terrorist faction Saddam wanted to entertain. Were there risks of action? You bet. But most of the enormous risks did not come about: no use of such weapons, no massive destruction of oil wells, no fracturing of the country, no terrorist revenge or resurgence.

10:05 AM

Thursday, October 02, 2003  
OK, sounds like this rumor didn't pan out. The one thing that made me take it seriously, the AP byline, is apparently fraudulent according to a post from Instapundit.

12:10 PM

 
And now, from the depths of despair, a ray of hope for the West. The IHT carries an article about the discussion that's brewing among French political elites about the root cause of their foreign policy failures. Among the topics being addressed are, mercifully, the statism of their economy and their politics.
Indeed, Le Monde, which normally makes French ambitions, or distress about their failures, synonymous with Europe's, made some rare admissions this week about the French descent in Europe's eyes.

Daniel Vernet, a former senior editor of the newspaper, wrote, 'We often irritate our partners because too frequently we have the tendency to want to impose our views, or only to consider as truly European those positions that conform to a French vision, however much in the EU minority it may be.'

That resulted in a dilemma without an obvious exit, Vernet said. 'The European partners don't want to hear about European policy independent from the United States,' he wrote. 'So, either France acts alone, and, regardless of what's claimed, its influence remains limited. Or it seeks a common denominator with its partners and it has to give up its ambitions....'

....Of all the books, the current No. 2 on the bestseller list of L'Express, "La France Qui Tombe," by Nicolas Baverez, has been the focus of unusual attention.

Baverez, a practicing attorney and economist who has a strong place in the Paris establishment, argues that France's leadership hates change. Rather, it "cultivates the status quo and rigidity" because it is run through the connivance of politicians, civil servants and union officials, bringing together both the left- and right-wing elites. They are described as mainly concerned with preserving the failed statist system that protects their jobs and status....


....For [Baverez], France is threatened with becoming a museum diplomatically and a transit center economically. To do anything about it, it must revive itself internally first, getting away from what he calls its "social statist model." To advance, it must end the dominant role of a 'public sector placed outside of any constraint requiring productivity or competitiveness.'

It would be a great day if France rejoined the West.

Link via Instapundit. As he says, read the whole thing.

10:25 AM

Wednesday, October 01, 2003  
Since I've already posted twice about this, I should make my feelingings plain here. If it turns out that somebody outed a CIA covert agent, that somebody needs to go to jail, as stipulated by law. I don't care who it is--if it's President Bush he should be impeached, and policy be damned. The war will suck for a while, and we'll probably lose a city's worth of people, in my opinion. But that's better than losing our soul. (I can say this--my family members will probably be among the dead, for all the times I've urged them to move. When I get depressed about the war, I get really, really depressed.) For the sake of the global war, I hope it's a far, far smaller offense. To quote Stratfor (and notice the 1864 meme popping up):

No one is close to proving anything at this point, of course, and Karl Rove
might be the victim of unwarranted accusations. From the Democrats' point of
view, the uncertainty makes this moment all the sweeter. The same folks who
hated the special prosecutor under Clinton now demand a special prosecutor
for this case -- fair enough, since the people who loved Clinton's special
prosecutor are now adamantly opposed to the one for Bush. It all evens out.


What doesn't even out is this. The United States is engaged in a global war
so far from over it's more like a cave than a tunnel -- forget, for now,
seeing a light at the end of it. Bipartisanship has completely collapsed and
we have moved from grudging consensus to calls for prosecutors to
investigate felonies. The situation is now completely out of hand. U.S.
elections have been held during wars, but it is difficult to remember a
wartime election this rough and destructive. The elections of 1968 and 1972
were not this far gone a year away from election day. We guess that we'd
have to go back to 1864 to see something similar.


The problem is this. The administration has held to the WMD line for so long
that it has become a separate dogma that can neither be defended, nor
abandoned. Regardless of whether Rove blew the agent, adhering to a
disproved claim in the hopes that no one will notice is not only a bad
idea -- it isn't working. At some point the White House must come to grips
with the fact that its WMD strategy just isn't flying. There was a reason
for invading Iraq. It wasn't WMD. Get on with the war.


On the other side, Washington has become so used to government-by-scandal
that even wartime necessities can't stop it. Trying to destroy Bill Clinton
or Robert Bork or any of the innumerable public figures savaged during
peacetime is one thing. It is quite another to do so during war. It seems to
us that if Karl Rove is guilty, then he should be hung from a tree. His
action is unforgivable. But -- and this is the crucial point -- discrediting
a sitting president during war is very risky. Even Pearl Harbor wasn't
investigated until the war was under control.


In other words (we would apologize for editorializing, but we aren't
journalists, so no apology needed) -- this is a wonderful time for both
sides to cut it out. The White House should admit what we all know -- they
screwed up on the WMD issue, or lied. It's one or the other, and the Bush
administration is not getting out of this without paying a price. The
Democrats should bear in mind that the United States is at war and that
there is a difference between winning the White House and destroying it.
There is a war on, dammit.


The only winner in all of this is Osama bin Laden. It's beginning to look
like his analysis of the United States was shrewder than it might originally
have appeared. The United States is self-destructive. Just give it a little
push, and Washington will tear itself apart.


4:41 PM

 
Well, it's not much of a defense, but here's some interesting data:
How big a secret was it? It was well known around Washington that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA. Republican activist Clifford May wrote Monday, in National Review Online, that he had been told of her identity by a non-government source before my column appeared and that it was common knowledge. Her name, Valerie Plame, was no secret either, appearing in Wilson's 'Who's Who in America' entry.

The Prince of Darkness himself, link via Porphyrogenitus.

I suspect this "scandal" is simply going to die out. It'll be an ember to light the activist tinder next fall, nothing more.

4:06 PM

 
Whoa. This story would change the situation more than a bit, if it turns out to be true. It's from the AP, printed so far in the Hindustan Times and the World Net Daily. I'll be watching for more details.
The pro-government daily reports Kuwaiti security forces foiled an attempted smuggling of $60 million worth of chemical weapons and biological warheads from Iraq to an unnamed European country.
Citing an unnamed security source, Al-Siyassah said the smugglers had been under surveillance since they arrived in Kuwait and were arrested 'in due time.'

Link via Google News, after Instapundit picked up the story. Geez, does that guy actually scan the Hindustan Times every afternoon?

This would support the idea that Hussein had WMDs in hiding all along. Actually, it would fit in nicely with what's happened since "major combat operations" ended. It certainly appears that the Iraqi government planned all along for a guerilla warfare--that's one of the reasons that some of the elite units of the Iraqi military folded so fast--they simply headed for the hills to await re-activation by their leaders. So, putting yourself in Hussein's shoes, if this were your plan all along, would you use your WMDs in a final gotterdammerung, or would you stash them somewhere safe, waiting for the most opportune moment to use them? In this case, it would appear that they were being used as a piggy bank, to generate the cash needed for continued resistance after American raids have confiscated a lot of the physical wealth and hardware of the Baathists. Hmmm, well that's all I'm willing to extrapolate until I get more info.

3:44 PM

 
Well, that tears it. Unless he comes out with some masterful grand strategy to win the war on terror, there is no way I'm voting for Clark. This is from an interview with Josh Marshall, in which he expresses the opinion that the Republicans take an ideological stance towards policy, rather than the Democrats' < giggle >purely pragmatic< choke > approach:
And this administration comes in with an ideology that blocks its ability to see, articulate, and resolve those problems. It's an ideology that's a sharpened sort of right-wing Republican party ideology. It has no real intellectual base to it. It's just the ideology of a party. By intellectual base, I'm talking first, trickle-down economics. No reputable economist stands up and says, 'Trickle down economics really works.' Because we know the marginal propensity to consume of people who are making $100,000 a year and less is much higher than the marginal propensity to consume of people who are making $350,000 a year and more.

So therefore when you say you're going to give money to the rich so they'll make jobs for the poor -- that's not a very efficient way of producing jobs in the American economy.

Now first of all, this is a purely Keynesian point of view, which only proves that Clark learned to properly regurgitate academic economics for the classes he taught, and hasn't learned a damn thing about the economy since then. He's sort of ignoring the entire performance of the economy since Reagan's tax cuts and the 1995 cap-gains cut. Second of all, it shows a severe lack of respect, bordering on contempt, for his opponents--a trait that will make him into a failure of a president.

3:04 PM

 
OK, I haven't blogged yet about the Wilson affair. I've been trying to sort out the facts, which have been pretty opaque so far. This is serious business, though--IF Ms. Plame was actually a covert agent, either somebody's going to go to jail or the Bush Administration risks losing what's left of their credibility in intellegence matters. IF that somebody turns out to be a member of the inner circle (such as Karl Rove, who appears to be the political target here), Bush's team could collapse and the global war effort along with it. Especially after the neo-copperheads win the election next fall. In the meantime, I wanted to save this Washington Times editorial for a later analysis. Despite the blatant partisanship in this article, it's the only good indication I've found that Karl Rove is not going to go down for this.
Take Mr. Wilson himself, who has been much in evidence on national television screens since this weekend. Could he have an agenda beyond demanding justice?
Well, what would you think of someone who tells people around Washington — as Mr. Wilson did last week — "Neo-conservatives and religious conservatives have hijacked this administration, and I consider myself on a personal mission to destroy both."
That sounds pretty ugly, doesn't it? It is in fact quite a bit at odds with the reasonable image that Mr. Wilson has been projecting on our television screens in recent days. Mr. Wilson also saw fit back in August to aaccuse presidential adviser Karl Rove of having orchestrated the White House leak. He swore he would see Mr. Rove led out of there "in handcuffs." Now, he says he got carried away by passion and is in possession of no evidence that Mr. Rove was involved.

By way of Tacitus.

10:23 AM

Monday, September 29, 2003  
Oooo, interesting. If this is true, it explains an awful lot of polls concerning tax policy.
Opponents of the Bush tax cuts often claim 'tax cuts for the rich' occurs at the expense of the poor. But several recent studies show that these are not static groups, and that people frequently move in and out of the 'poor' and 'rich' demographics. Many of those categorized as poor are young people beginning their careers or unemployed people briefly out of the workforce. Similarly, many of those who are 'rich' today will stop earning high incomes in future years. The number of people who will gain much from the tax cuts in their lifetimes is far higher than the number who benefit in any year, because of this income mobility.

By way of Trendmacro.

3:27 PM

 
Speaking of Belmont Club, I just have to copy this out:
It would not be the first time that the inner contradictions of a civilization, taken to their limit, have killed it. Something in the expansionist and militant hubris of 19th century Europe led the continent to the mindless mud and trenches of the Great War. The Lost Generation died by Europe's own hand. Now it is Islam coming face to face with a challenge of how to handle the true divine fire. And the real dilemma is that the power behind the light of the stars is incompatible with the framework bequeathed by Mohammed. It may be the turn of the Faithful to die by Islam's own hand unless it can listen to the word that speaks from the very heart of the flame.

And that message, surprisingly, is that we must love one another or die. J. Robert Oppenheimer thought, as he beheld the fireball of the first atomic test at Alamogordo, that he heard the Hindu god Shiva whisper 'I am become death, the destroyer of worlds'. He understood at that moment that mankind's moral capacity would have to expand to match its technical prowess or it would perish. If Islam desires the secret of the stars it must embrace the kuffar as its brother -- or die.


2:53 PM

 
Why we fight. What happens if the Islamo-fascists get nuclear weapons.

UPDATE: I came to Belmont Club by way of Europundits. Belmont is a pretty cool blog, I recommend reading some of his other stuff. It's made my list of weekly reading.

2:14 PM

 
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