"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right."

---Robert Park






 
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This is where I'm supposed to stick random tidbits of information about myself.

(Like I'd tell you about my tidbits.)


Links:

Prof. Pollkatz's Pool of Polls

U. of Iowa Electronic Markets

Salaam Pax's Blog from Baghdad

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MentalBlocks
Throwing Mental Blocks at Glass Constructions
 
Friday, August 08, 2003  
Lileks is on a roll:

If your bumpersticker says DON’T BLAME ME, I VOTED FOR AYN RAND I'm not particularly impressed. ‘Cause she’s dead and none of that stuff is going to happen. Doesn’t mean we can’t keep the ideas in play, but if you don’t vote because no candidate vows to privatize the sewage systems and disband the Food and Drug Administration, don’t come crying to me when your marginal tax rate hits 71 percent.



9:59 AM

Thursday, August 07, 2003  
Europundit writes about the Fourth World War. The best bit:

These would-be psychoanalytical interpretations are condescending in character. They pay little regard to the complexity of the transatlantic political and democratic game, to the intensity and the quality of intellectual debate, and underestimate the intelligence and the analytical capacity of the American elites, notably the political ones. To believe that debate is non-existent in the United States you must know nothing of the history of the United States, never have visited Washington, be unaware of the quality of their think-tanks and never have surfed the Net. American political life is incontestably the most organized and the richest of all the democracies. American politicians are anything but amateurs. And George W. Bush is no more a simplistic cowboy than Ronald Reagan was.


The analysis continues with Part 2.

12:00 PM

 
Yet another example of how the military has been pretty good about responding to changed conditions and failed plans in Iraq:

The top allied commander also said the U.S. military, in a change in strategy, has decided to limit the scope of its raids in Iraq after receiving warnings from Iraqi leaders that the large military sweeps were alienating the public.

Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the chief commander of allied forces in Iraq, said in an interview in Thursday editions of The New York Times that the military had virtually exhausted the gains from the massive raid approach.

"It was a fact that I started to get multiple indicators that maybe our iron-fisted approach to the conduct of ops was beginning to alienate Iraqis," Sanchez said, referring to military operations.


Via the Drudge Report.

10:11 AM

Wednesday, August 06, 2003  
Jonathan Rauch writes in the National Journal about the historical parallels between GWB and FDR. This is a particularly timely article, and agrees with my own insights into the matter. I figure that we're at about 1932 in the timeline of the 1930s--we've hit bottom and are starting to pull it out. There's a long way to go yet, and it may not turn out well in the end, but if Bush manages to put together a new governing coalition for the 2004 election, then we've hit bottom and are on the upswing. One gripe, though:

Bush's tax cuts, as they emerged seriatim, proved to be aimed not just at reducing the government's revenue but also at changing the structure of the tax code to reduce personal rates and, especially, to reduce taxes on capital accumulation.


I think this is only half-true. Administration officials have routinely stated, in agreement with supply-side theories, that the tax cuts are intended to increase government revenue, by allowing the economy to grow faster. That's why they've been willing to increase spending at the same time--they figure that increasing tax receipts in the near future will bail out the budget. With the capital gains cut from 15% to 20%, this is going to be a very near-term effect as more trading activity changes--in a year or two, the deficits will be a non-issue. At the same time, I see very little intent in the White House to actually decrease the size or scope of the federal government, which is driving the far right absolutely nuts. As the article points out, the new philosophy of "conservatism" seems to be not one of actually decreasing the authority of the federal government, but of using it more wisely--trying to do the things that government can do, while increasing the openness of the economy to encourage growth, particularly in the area of individual and small-business contributions.

Aside from that, I think the article is spot-on as far as the ambitions of this president and the dangers he faces.


12:13 PM

 
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