"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right."
---Robert Park
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MentalBlocks
Throwing Mental Blocks at Glass Constructions
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Wednesday, May 21, 2003
Stratfor says that the Al Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia, Morroco, and possibly Chechnya were part of a coordinated offensive to prove that the terrorist organization is still operative. (The rumor mill at DEBKA claims that bin Laden and Zuwahri are alive and directing the campaign from souther Saudi Arabia.) Al Qaeda is in a use-it-or-lose-it situation regarding their resources--they have to prove that they are still a power, otherwise their organization will lose motivation and simply dissolve. Stratfor goes on to predict that there will be more attacks, but that they are not likely within North America, as Al Qaeda no longer has the resources to make a major attack here. They are more likely on the relatively unguarded "flanks", in Asia or Latin America, and they will probably be rather large and spectacular.
11:33 AM
Tuesday, May 20, 2003
Who will watch the watchers? The WaPo editorializes about the redistricting brouhaha in Texas. The problem is, this is nothing new. Gerrymandering is, at this point, almost an ancient technique. If you leave elected officials to decide the boundaries of their own voting districts, then naturally they will choose those boundaries such that the voters in them care more about their party affiliation than about the scummy redistricting process. But who else can do the job? Giving the job to the courts would guarantee a politicized, partisan judicial system, at least to the extent we don't already have one. Redistricting is, by definition, a political process meant to reflect the wishes of the voters as best as is possible. As such, it should be handled by elected politicians. The only cure for gerrymandering is for the voters to put a stop to it themselves. That requires that the electorate recognize the value of strong representation of opposing views. As long as our individual politics come down to "us vs. them" and "red vs. blue", there is no cure.
4:05 PM
Stratfor says that the battle for the House of Saud is about to commence (subscriber-only link):
A crisis might be brewing in Riyadh. The government's ongoing war with dissident militants has ratcheted up, the United States is howling about impending terrorist strikes and squeezing Riyadh for more counterterrorism support, and now factions within the ruling clique are using the crisis to undermine each other. A behind-the-scenes power struggle amid mounting domestic and foreign pressures will further destabilize the House of Saud.
The situation in Saudi Arabia is sliding toward political instability. The al Qaeda strikes might or might not presage a full-scale war, but they are definitely part of an ongoing confrontation between militants and security forces in Saudi Arabia. Now intertwined with the domestic problem are the U.S. concerns of political instability and terrorism in the oil-rich kingdom.
It goes on to describe the political maneuvering around Prince Bandar's sudden recall to Riyadh, just hours before he was scheduled to make the rounds of the Sunday morning talk shows this past weekend. It seems that Crown Prince Abdullah (favoring rapprochment with Iran and confrontation with the U.S.) is squaring off against the Sudairi, King Fahd, Sultan, and their brothers, who favor close ties with the U.S. The situation is Byzantine, to say the least, but it seems that Abdullah is temporarily backed in a corner, not least because the Saudi people are genuinely outraged at the terrorist attacks in their country. I'm still not sure how this fits into the overall strategic picture, but the wheels are coming off the wagon in the Middle East.
Syria is being forced into cooperation, and Bashar Assad's reformist impulses are being reinforced. The Saud family is going to have to decide once and for all which side they're on, Iran is running scared, and the Palestinians are about to immolate the "peace roadmap" for the umpteenth time. There are no rest stops on the highway to Armageddon.
3:42 PM
Monday, May 19, 2003
A rather neat refutation of Keynes' liquidity trap. By way of Trendmacro.
2:36 PM
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