"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right."

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This is where I'm supposed to stick random tidbits of information about myself.

(Like I'd tell you about my tidbits.)


Links:

Prof. Pollkatz's Pool of Polls

U. of Iowa Electronic Markets

Salaam Pax's Blog from Baghdad

Tradesports, where people put real money on the line over politics and current events.

All about Fehlervorhersagefreude.





























MentalBlocks
Throwing Mental Blocks at Glass Constructions
 
Friday, April 04, 2003  

Well, this would explain the HARM missile in the marketplace:

But sometimes reporters need to handle with care critical comments for their good and for the good of their subjects. On Friday, after an explosion in a market reportedly killed dozens of people, television networks showed angry crowds chanting prayers and slogans bcking the government, which blamed the deaths on coalition bombs.
Ms. Nakhoul said she interviewed grief-stricken women. The women complained not only about the Americans, but also about the Iraqis, for placing antiaircraft batteries in their neighborhood.



2:39 PM

 

From Dissidentfrogman:

So I guess I asked: "And where is Joe now? Where is Tommy?"

My parents probably answered that they were gone, back home long before I was born. Joe and Tommy didn't come to conquer like Fritz did, you know, hence they went back to their own countries. That's why, since I wasn't born when Joe and Tommy shed their blood to make sure I would come to life free in a free land, I learned about them by my father and mother, many years later.

And that's why I couldn't thank Joe and Tommy, like I wanted.

I know that today, there are fathers and mothers in Kosovo telling their kids about Joe and Tommy. I know there will be others tomorrow in Iraq.


Read the whole thing.

12:56 PM

 

Three down, three to go?

The Command Post: Another Republican Guard Division Reported Destroyed


12:37 PM

Thursday, April 03, 2003  

A friend recently pointed me to OSS.net, a commercial open-source intelligence site. I looked at their front page, and was not immediately impressed, but I want to keep them in mind for the future. Anyway, they made a direct prediction in this article that is based on reading two on-line sources:

In the second, a retired Ambassador lays out three scenarios for Baghdad, all of them ugly. The most likely in our judgement: Hussein survives and US withdraws.


We'll see how it all comes out.

2:09 PM

 

From a UPI article about the effort to win over the Iraqi tribes:

Buying the tribes from Saddam
"The most important duty of a tribal chief is knowing when to switch sides," one British official with knowledge of the undercover operation told United Press International. "In Najaf, the al-Jaburi tribe understood that Saddam Hussein's time was over. "


And here's the really important 'graph for the future of Iraq:

Ironically, Saddam helped this process. Although his Baathist party in the 1960s and 1970s tried to crush the tribes as alternative power bases, he has more recently worked to win them over by restoring judicial authority to the sheiks and channeling money for public works through them. And despite repeated attempts at land reform, more than half of Iraqi land is "owned" by tribes rather than by individuals.


If most of the wealth of a nation continues to be held by communal authority, it follows as day follows night that it will be a poor nation. The incentives for political leaders simply do not encourage the development of widespread prosperity. This is not to say that the tribes must be deprived of the wealth that they now have, but that an method must be found of making individual wealth the primary store of wealth in Iraq. I have no idea how this could be accomplished.

By way of Josh Marshall

1:09 PM

 

Truth is stranger than fiction:

And even as U.S. forces were positioned around Baghdad, Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al Sahaf dismissed reports of coalition troops closing in on the capital as "silly."
"They are nowhere near Baghdad," al Sahaf told a news conference in the capital today. "Their allegations are a cover-up for their failure."


From an ABC News report.

12:55 PM

 

Getting a running start on the "Iraqi civilian deaths" debate. Oxblog has a rebuttal to Marc Herold's Iraq Body Count Project.

9:45 AM

Wednesday, April 02, 2003  

William Safire has a column of "Snap Judgments" on the war. I'm not going to excerpt it, 'cause it's all good. Oh, ok, maybe just one:

9. Biggest long-run victory of coalition forces to date: the lightning seizure of southern oil fields before Saddam had a chance to ignite them. This underappreciated tactical triumph will speed Iraq's postwar reconstruction by at least a year.



5:12 PM

 

From Instapundit, a translation of an article in Die Zeit. It's from anonymous interviews with U.N. weapons inspectors, and it's pretty damning of the Franco-Russo-German arguments for "peace".

Could this war have been prevented? Yes, say some [inspectors]. But with a surprising argument: Germany, France and Russia made war unavoidable with their purported peace politics. Gerhard Schroeder's categorical 'no' to military deployment was simply "crazy." "We might have been able to fulfill our mandate," one hears in the hotel lobby.


3:38 PM

 

So now the big question is who's in charge in Baghdad? I've been trying to figure out how coalition forces have taken all these bridges, including the key Tigris river crossings, without the Iraqis blowing them up first. Especially the Tigris bridges near Al Kut--they are irreplaceable for investing Baghdad from the east, and were defended by one of the supposedly nastiest RG divisions, the Baghdad division. Now CENTCOM is saying the Baghdad RG is combat-ineffective, and the bridges are held by the Marines. It's possible that a special forces operation took and held the bridges before they could be blown, but it's also possible that the order to blow them simply wasn't issued. So what's going on?

DEBKA says that it's because Saddam has left the building. He's not dead--he's out of the country, has been for several days now, and there is a power struggle going to replace him. What a booby prize that would turn out to be, for whoever wins it. Stratfor says they don't know what's going on, and nobody else is even speculating. Myself, I haven't a clue, but I do think it's pretty clear that there's no effective commander in Iraq anymore.

Incidentally, DEBKA also says that the 101st is fighting to secure the Habbaniyah air base northwest of Baghdad. Here's a map to help visualize this. DEBKA has been pretty good with their rumors of fighting in various locations, but they've been playing fast and loose with unit designations, so take it for what it's worth. The complete investment of Baghdad is coming pretty near, though. And if the government is collapsing, the combat portion of this war could be over with pretty quick. Then the real fun begins.


1:50 PM

 

StrategyPage has this report claiming that the bombing is, indeed more accurate than it has been in the past.

Twelve years ago, the Iraqis were able to elude most of the bombs. According to prisoners of war and defectors, this is not the case in 2003. Republican Guard divisions find their casualties climbing and morale dropping. The coalition is keeping over a hundred bombers in the air 24/7, ready to drop smart bombs on enemy troops in contact with U.S. troops or seen moving from the air. Although the Republican Guard have dug their trenches in orchids, villages and anywhere there is cover, they are still spotted and promptly bombed. Most civilians have fled, warned by weeks of coalition radio broadcasts and leaflet drops to leave if they see Iraqi troops or equipment near them.


Also:

In central and western Iraq, U.S. Special Forces have made contact with tribal leaders and won some of them over to the anti-Saddam cause. About a quarter of the Iraqi population has a strong tribal connection, and many of these have guns, legal or illegal. Iraqi tribesmen have been fighting with U.S. troops moving up from the south as well as Special Forces operating in the west.




11:52 AM

Tuesday, April 01, 2003  

Anybody else notice that there's no moon? Hmmm, starting the war under a full moon put the invasion force in the right place to attack Baghdad under a moonless sky...

9:54 PM

 

Stratfor has their war diary for April 1 up, and like I said, they also think that this is the turning point. They put up a Reuters report saying that Karbala is now surrounded, in only 3 hours instead of the 24 that was expected by CENTCOM. I think the Medina division is basically done. And now they've got an AP report up that the Marines have crossed the Tigris near Al Kut. The Republican Guard is cracking, and the reports are coming in faster than I can type. Stratfor is estimating that there are 3 columns approaching Baghdad--the 3rd Infantry up the west side of the Euphrates, the 101st up the east side, and the 1st Marine Division from the southeast. I'm not sure the real situation is this cut-and-dried. After all, it does appear that one brigade of the 3rd is still east of the Euphrates working its way northward.


9:22 PM

 

Here is an excellent article at GovExec.com, as linked by Phil Carter. It's kind of long, but if you want to get a minimum of understanding of what's happened over the last couple of weeks, it's worth reading. It's got a lot of eyewitness-type-stuff, and a glimpse of some of the arguments that have happened during the planning, notably Rumsfeld's decision to cut the deployed forces in half.

Notably, the Pentagon scrapped the Time Phased Force Deployment Data, or "TipFid," by which regional commanders would identify forces needed for a specific campaign, and the individual armed services would manage their deployments by order of priority. The result has meant that even as Central Command chief Gen. Tommy Franks was launching the war, forces identified for the fight continued to pour off ships in the Kuwaiti port of Doha, and not necessarily in the order of first priority.

"A lot of people around here can get very emotional talking about the lack of a TipFid for this operation," said a knowledgeable source at V Corps headquarters. "It would also be awfully nice to have another division to secure the supply routes and cities between An Nasiriya in the south and Baghdad, because we assume a lot of risk [by] leaving that much territory largely unguarded."


I think it remains to be seen if Rummy is a visionary red-tape-cutter, or if he's gone a bridge too far on this one. If the army wins this one with a reduced, big-teeth-small-tail force, then he's going to get his "transformation" in spades. If they have to bring in another corps, then he'll probably lose his job.


8:39 PM

 
From Phil Carter, the last letter home from PFC Diego Rincon on Feb. 22. He was one of five soldiers killed in a suicide car bombing last Saturday.

Hola Mother,

How are you doing? Good I hope. I'm doing OK I guess. I won't be able to write anymore starting the 28th of this month. We are moving out. We are already packed and ready to move to a tactical Alpha-Alpha (in Iraq). Once that happens, there will not be any mail sent out. We will only receive mail that is less than 12 ounces. At least that's what they said. I'm not sure where exactly we're going be at yet, but it is said to be a 20-hour drive in the Bradleys.

So I guess the time has finally come for us to see what we are made of, who will crack when the stress level rises and who will be calm all the way through it. Only time will tell. We are at the peak of our training and it's time to put it to the test.

I just want to tell everybody how much you all mean to me and how much I love you all. Mother, I love you so much! I'm not going to give up! I'm living my life one day at a time, sitting here picturing home with a small tear in my eyes, spending time with my brothers who will hold my life in their hands.

I try not to think of what may happen in the future, but I can't stand seeing it in my eyes. There's going to be murders, funerals and tears rolling down everybody's eyes. But the only thing I can say is, keep my head up and try to keep the faith and pray for better days. All this will pass. I believe God has a path for me. Whether I make it or not, it's all part of the plan. It can't be changed, only completed.

Mother will be the last word I'll say. Your face will be the last picture that goes through my eyes. I'm not trying to scare you, but it's reality. The time is here to see the plan laid out. And hopefully, I'll be at home in it. I don't know what I'm talking about or why I'm writing it down. Maybe I just want someone to know what goes through my head. It's probably good not keeping it all inside.

I just hope that you're proud of what I'm doing and have faith in my decisions. I will try hard and not give up. I just want to say sorry for anything I have ever done wrong. And I'm doing it all for you mom. I love you.

P.S. Very Important Document.

Your son,
Diego Rincon


'Nuff said.

7:52 PM

 

A good update from StrategyPage. Among other things, CENTCOM is flying in extra Armored Cav and MP units to patrol the rear areas, due to the unanticipated threat from irregulars. The cavalry apparently train in armed hummers in addition to their tracked vehicles, so they can be quickly flown in and get to work with the hummers, where their Bradleys would take longer to ship in. The USAF is saying that human error and equipment failure have led to a 10% miss ratio for the guided weapons in the war so far. Iraqi prisoners are reporting heavy casualties from bombing among the Republican Guard. Like I've said before, the USAF learned from Kosovo, too.

And then there's the report from Basra. I think that Basra and Nasiriyah are good indicators for how the final seige of Baghdad will go. If the military can figure out how to take Basra, that's a giant leap forward in figuring out how to tackle Baghdad. The U.S. "victory conditions" won't allow a block-by-block demolition of Baghdad, the way the Russians took Berlin in 1945. That's why this is great news:

In Basra, British Royal Marine Commandos and army armored units continue to hunt down and destroy the irregular units that are terrorizing the city. Many of the marine combat patrols are at night, which terrorizes the Iraqi fighters, who lack night vision equipment or training in night combat. The British are skillful night fighters and reports from Iraqi deserters and civilians fleeing the city indicate that the irregular units are getting discouraged and falling apart. Even some of the Saddam loyalists are fleeing the city. The British use their superior reconnaissance capabilities to find where the irregulars are establishing their bases (to feed, rearm and treat wounded fighters) and quickly attack them. The British have also cleared out the irregular units operating in the suburbs of the city. Iraqi prisoners report that the Saddam loyalists are going from door to door forcibly recruiting military age men to fight ("join us or die.") These men are deserting at the first opportunity, even though the Saddam loyalists sometimes go and kill families of deserters. But the Saddam loyalists are too busy with the British, so the desertions increase.

Arab translators working for the coalition (Iraqi-Americans and Iraqi exiles recruited and trained for this, plus some Kuwaitis) report that most Iraqi civilians are so terrorized by Saddam's police and thugs, and memories of the failed rebellion of 1991, that they still fear that Saddam will win this war and return with revenge in mind. However, some neighborhoods in Basra and Umm Qasr are starting to shed the fear and accept the fact that Saddam and his crew are gone for good. British troops are using clever tactics to facilitate this. For example, after capture Baath party headquarters are searched and all weapons and documents removed, the British let local civilians loot the place. This lets the civilians see for themselves how well the Baath party members were living while most Iraqi civilians sank deeper into poverty.


Those sneaky, sneaky bastards. God love them...

3:30 PM

 

Also from Best of the Web, Walter Russell "Jacksonians- Wilsonians-and-Jeffersonians-oh-my" Mead talks about the struggle for the soul of Europe. Read-the-whole-thing-o-meter is showing a 10 for this one.

Battlefield Europe
Here's one way to describe the relationship: Together, Germany and France can afford a fancy sports car. Germany spends all its time polishing it and tinkering under its hood. It is a poky driver, never going more than 40 miles an hour -- even on the autobahn. This drives France crazy. Why have a sports car if you can't lay rubber, the French wonder. Why get the car if you aren't going to go out drag-racing against Uncle Sam?



2:15 PM

 

If this is the sort of thing that is going through Iraqis' heads, then we've already won. Our bombs are more effective than their thugs.

"But we decided it was either die from an American bomb or be killed by our own people," he said. "It was better to run and take our chances."


Read it. Just read the whole thing. And note the details--the poor guy didn't even have a flame-proof jacket.

UPDATE: This came by way of Best of the Web. James has a lot more like it today. Things seem to be going well...


1:54 PM

 

In another e-mail, Stratfor quotes a British report that things are going well in Basra and Umm Qasr. The troops have largely taken off their helmets and are wearing berets, and the local population has increasingly been informing the troops of the locations of Baath paramilitary forces.

I think April 1 is a turning point.


1:41 PM

 

The Stratfor battle map is showing UK Royal Marines in the western desert, along with special forces.

11:50 AM

 

Blogspot publishing is back up. Guess the world isn't coming to an end. ;-)

11:45 AM

 

Richard Perle writes a pretty good defense of himself from Seymour Hersh's New Yorker article, and explains his resignation from the chair of the Defense Policy Board. All in all, I'm glad he got taken down a notch. He's been a great intellectual stimulant in the DoD, but the way he got played by the Saudis indicates that he's stretching the limits of his abilities as an operator, in my opinion. Not that I could do any better, but then I'm not trying to play the same game that he is. And I still say that he's going to go too far one of these days. A little humility is a good thing, and my opinion of him is greatly improved by the fact that he has shown some.

11:44 AM

 

StrategyPage says they know why the 173rd Airborne Bde. jumped onto a "friendly" airfield.

The official reason given was that it was thought more prudent to drop them by parachute because this would put more combat ready troops on the ground more quickly in case there was any opposition. It would also allow all the participants to add the "combat jump" star to their paratrooper wings.



10:54 AM

 

And now Blogspot publishing is down, too! What's next, the NYSE?


10:47 AM

 

Stratfor is still down, so I'm relying on the same news sources as the rest of the mortals today. They've been pretty good about sending out daily e-mail summaries while they work out their problems, but geez, if ever there was a time when you needed them...

In the Where did they come from? department, I heard a report on CBS radio this morning that the Marines are still fighting from Nasariyah toward Al Kut. A video report on CBS News website says that they are fighting near Al Hayy, just south of Kut.

In a summary e-mail, Stratfor says that "foreign intelligence sources" (which from Stratfor usually means German and Russian intelligence) has cast doubt on the bomb damage assessment being reported by CENTCOM. They say that the Republican Guard divisions under air attack are only 5 to 10 percent attrited instead of roughly 50% as the U.S. says. Stratfor does not try to claim this is correct, but gives several reasons this might be true, primarily that the Iraqis learned how to use maskirova from the Serbs' experience in Kosovo. I don't entirely buy it--the divisions under heaviest attack have been the ones that are engaged with U.S. troops, and I think it's probable that most of the targeting is being done from the ground rather than from the air. After all, the Air Force learned from Kosovo, too.

10:39 AM

 

More from Matthew Fisher, riding with the Marines.

And although the Iraqi Information Ministry has been denying for days that Iraqi soldiers are dressing as civilians, almost all the soldiers we have encountered so far have been wearing civilian clothes, rather than military uniforms.
When captured, it is not hard to spot the soldiers -- they are invariably young, and too well-groomed for the peasant farmers they are trying to hide among.
Some have military identification cards, others have their uniforms hidden away, and a few have suspiciously large sums of money -- certainly far more money than would be carried by peasant farmers here in what is a very primitive economy.


10:17 AM

 

CNN reports information from a CENTCOM briefing that no WMD have yet been found in Iraq. Guess that does in the report of nerve gas...

10:10 AM

Monday, March 31, 2003  

CNN reports that AC-130 gunships are active over Nasiriyah. This is the first I've heard of these being used, and it's significant because they can only be used in a relatively AAA threat-free environment. This means that the battle for the south is basically over, assuming guerilla warfare is suppressed by destroying the Baghdad government.

A noteworthy quote from this article:

In areas around Nasiriya, civilians told CNN they had been terrorized for years by Baath Party operatives.

One Iraqi, who goes by the name Hayat, said through an interpreter that Baath Party "thugs" shot him three times and left him for dead when he refused to fight in the Persian Gulf War. He said he has been trying to eke out a living between subsistence farming and odd jobs since to support his wife and three children.

Baath Party members come by all neighborhoods in Nasiriya on a regular basis to extort money and test loyalty, Hayat said. If neither is forthcoming, he said, "You will be shot."

Marine officers said they hope to expedite the Iraqi regime's collapse by reaching civilians such as Hayat through humanitarian programs and displays of goodwill. U.S. forces also are trying to enlist tribal leaders to join the U.S.-led coalition and help keep Saddam's forces at bay.

"If we can pass the word at Nasiriya and the tribal leaders pick up on it, we are halfway home," one Marine said.



2:14 PM

 

Stratfor is back up and confirms that elements of the 101st and the 3rd ID are in "extremely heavy contact" east of the Euphrates near Al Hillah (as usual, DEBKA got the unit designations only partly right). Things are rockin' along at a pretty good clip, it seems to me. They also report that U.S. forces are rounding up Iraqi men in civilian clothes who appear well-fed and are hanging around battle zones after most people have fled. Sounds like they're getting smart and figuring out ways to target the Fedayeen. Some of the detainees may be shipped to Guantanamo. Another report of Marines staging "raids" on Ash Shatrah, 35Km north of Nasiriyah. Apparently the Marines are not headed for Kut, but made a left turn and are headed for Baghdad.

Another report says that the suspected chemical weapons facility near Nasiriyah is a storage depot and has been found to contain nerve gas and protective equipment. I'll be watching developments on this...

The DEBKA report I quoted earlier stated that the 101st units attacking Hindiyah were using some innovative urban warfare tactics. If true, this report backs up something that is an ongoing trend in military technology. They're sending in small teams of infantry armed with little range-finding boxes to designate the Iraqi artillery and armor in the cities. Once they've made their recconaisance the targets are destroyed by bombers and helicopters, and the larger groups of infantry march in to mop up. A related report from Strategy Page talks about how Navy F-18s are often flying into Iraq with fuel tanks slung under their wings, to refuel other F-18s so they can loiter longer over the target area. The fighter/bomber pilots must hate the job, but they've been turned into bomb trucks--they're just flying around waiting for a ground pounder to call in a strike.

What this means is that those small groups of infantry armed with designators for the bombers are doing the job that tanks have traditionally been used for--taking out the really tough protected positions so that the infantry can come in and exploit the breakthrough. It's the brave new world of "if you can see it, you can destroy it" brought about by precision guided weaponry. There's no advantage to being in a big steel box that can't be penetrated by a bullet, when there's a bunch of guys you can't see running around effectively shooting 500-lb bombs at you. When I described this situation to my girlfriend Renee, she grasped the implications immediately and said "that's an awful lot of power for one guy to have". Which is a great point--when you put that much power in the hands of one man, you have to be able to trust him. That means you pick your best people, train the bejeezus out of them, do a good job of assigning their mission, and then trust them to carry it out. It's the information revolution as applied to military science, and carries the same imperatives that have been manifesting themselves in the commercial version. It means that poorly-motivated and badly trained armies like the Iraqi army, or even large chunks of the U.S. Army, are living on borrowed time. The old-style armored warfare is losing its effectiveness.


2:01 PM

 

Stratfor's SQL server is messed up today. So I'm not getting much information beyond the normal stuff. DEBKA is saying that the 101st is across the river near Karbala, fighting in Hindiyah. They're claiming that the 101st has gotten between two RG divisions, the Hammurabi the Medinah (which is south of Karbala, facing the 3rd Inf. Div.) My understanding is that elements of the 3rd are in front of Al Hillah, so taking the crossing at Hindiyah would mean a good solid link-up and the encirclement of the Medinah division. As usual, take Debka for what it's worth, but the 101st does seem to be up to something in that area.

Here's a good map to help make sense of all this.

Matt Fisher is doing some great reporting with the Marines. Sounds like they're still moving north.


10:34 AM

 
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