"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right."
---Robert Park
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MentalBlocks
Throwing Mental Blocks at Glass Constructions
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Saturday, March 29, 2003
Granted, it's not clear that Arafat has complete control of the Fatah militias, but doesn't sending reinforcements to Baghdad pretty much mean that we're at war with the PA now?
By way of Instapundit.
1:50 PM
Friday, March 28, 2003
From SFGate:
Marine Lance Cpl. Marcco Ware carries an Iraqi soldier who was shot three times while trying to ambush a convoy of the 3rd Battalion, Fifth Regiment, in central Iraq. The attack left one Marine and about 40 Iraqis dead.
By way of Best of the Web.
12:41 PM
Thursday, March 27, 2003
Stratfor reports through their sources that at least part of the 101st is indeed north of Karbala on the east bank of the Euphrates. They are working on a pontoon bridge to bypass Karbala and preparing to face the Hammurabi Republican Guard division that defends western Baghdad. I guess DEBKA had it right.
8:59 PM
Here's a CNN report that indicates what might have happened to that column moving south from Baghdad. I'd take with a grain of salt the claim that it was hit by B-52s. I'm getting the impression that to the reporters, any airplane that drops a bomb is a "B-52".
Sandstorm skirmish
The next day the unit took more "Machine Gun Alley" fire. The desert winds had kicked up a sandstorm, but the result was the same as the night before.
"We could see through thermal sites," he said. "You could see what was shooting at you. With our gun tube orientation, everybody kept their sector and we kept rolling and we engaged all the way through."
By Wednesday night, he was northeast of Najaf, guarding the Euphrates River bridgehead. The unit stopped there, waiting for reinforcements to catch up.
As reports showed an Iraqi convoy apparently moving their way, Wheatley stood watch. He could feel the blasts of B-52 bombers attacking the convoy. "The wind was blowing bad," he said, "you could feel it more than hear it."
Due to the B-52s, the Iraqi convoy did not reach his unit. Reinforcements arrived the following day.
Read the whole thing.
5:19 PM
By way of Instapundit, Kanan Makiya writes about some possible reasons why there have been no uprisings in Iraq.
Do not believe any commentator who says that a rising surge of "nationalism" is preventing Iraqis from greeting U.S. and British troops in the streets with open arms. What is preventing them from rising up and taking over the streets of their cities is confusion about American intentions and fear of the murderous brown-shirt thugs known as the Fedayeen Saddam, who are leading the small-arms-fire attacks on American and British soldiers. The coalition forces have an urgent need to send clear and unmistakable signals to the people of Iraq that unlike in 1991, there is no turning back from the destruction of Saddam Hussein. And in order to do this effectively they must turn to the Iraqi opposition, which has so far been marginalized.
5:07 PM
I've no idea what this means: CNN.com - Perle resigns Defense Policy Board - Mar. 27, 2003
5:03 PM
Well, things in Iraq are hopping again, and I'm quite confused. I'm reading the combat reports on Stratfor, and reporters with the 3/7 Cavalry say that the squadron, which was the one unit known to be across the Euphrates north of Nasiriyah, has been ordered to stand down for rest and maintainance. They've been moving and fighting almost continuously since last Wednesday, and they've gone farther and faster than any armored unit I've ever heard of, so this is not surprising. What's interesting is that another unit must have got in there to relieve them. The 3rd Bde., 3rd Div. was known to be in the vicinity, so maybe they are across the river and leading the advance now. Either that, or the Marines got up there from Nasiriyah.
Also in the reports:
- The rest of the 101st Airmobile has crossed into Iraq from Kuwait. Only one brigade had previously been engaged while the other two were still arriving in theater. DEBKA claims that the 101st has turned up west of Karbala preparing to open another front at Baghdad, but I'll want to hear some other confirmation of that.
- Some body of heavy troops (reportedly an armored battalion of the 1st Inf. Div.) will be airlifted into northern Iraq to the airfield "secured" yesterday by the 173rd Airborne Bde. Still no idea why there had to be a night parachute drop to "secure" an airfield well within Kurdish areas, and already held by Kurdish forces.
- I've no idea where the info came from, so take it for what it's worth, but that Iraqi convoy moving south from Baghdad was reportedly a real potential problem. It was composed of light vehicles of some type carrying Iraqi soldiers wearing uniforms "similar to those of the 3rd Inf Div.", according to Stratfor. It was attacked and apparently destroyed by naval aviation.
- The Iraqi attack south from Basra was apparently not as big as originally reported, and has gone back to Basra. Not sure what, if anything, this means. I could pretty much tag everything with that sentence, though.
Still no idea what's happening in the west and north, or even much of the south. Most of the media reports are about the 3rd Inf Div, so I'm beginning to believe that unit is simply a blocking and distraction force--that would explain why they've stopped in front of Karbala. If the 101st has indeed advanced into the lake country west of Baghdad, that would be another line of advance, but one apparently without enough heavy units to force its way into Baghdad. One other problem pointed out by Stratfor is that there are apparently an awful lot of USMC and British troops doing not much of anything in the south. I question whether this is because partisans are keeping them busy, or because they're busy doing something sneaky. I find it odd that if there really are two or more divisions in the Basraw-Faw area, that attack from Basra managed to survive long enough to retreat.
9:25 AM
This report seems to indicate that the Marines are not headed for Kut, but are headed directly toward Baghdad, possibly by way of Diwaniyah? I'm starting to lose track here.
It is wild here near the front of the American advance, 110 miles south of Baghdad. The ambushes are more frequent, the Iraqi soldiers more desperate, the Americans more jumpy. At night, the perimeter of the American camp echoes with the sound of mortar fire and the yips of wild dogs. "The closer we get to Baghdad, the crazier it gets," Sgt. Robert Gardner, a marine at a base here, said.
The article also talks about a small ambush which the reporter says was led by a brigadier general? If true, that would be a pretty good sign that the Iraqi military is in trouble--a brigadier, who should be leading a brigade of a couple thousand troops, leading a small unit. On the other hand, a brigadier general in the U.S. army wears one star. In the Iraqi military, according to this page, one star on the shoulder of an officer indicates that he's a second lieutenant, appropriate to lead a unit of a couple dozen men. I wonder if the reporter just screwed up?
12:57 AM
Wednesday, March 26, 2003
According to a Stratfor report, CENTCOM says that they have "destroyed much of a column of Iraqi tanks and armored vehicles" that attacked south from Basra.
11:59 PM
Let's hope that this remains true:
In the 1991 Persian Gulf War, nine Abrams tanks were damaged by mines but were repaired. No U.S. soldier has ever died in an Abrams.
A good report of the 7th Cav in action, by way of Best of the Web
11:53 PM
It seems to have been bogus. The chairman of the JCS says that the "1000 vehicle armored column" that was reportedly engaging the 7th Cav is actually just a few trucks, and they are being engaged. Not sure if this is good or bad--our light forces don't have to deal with the rumored brigade of armor, but on the other hand they're still hunkered down in Baghdad instead of roaming around away from civilian areas.
4:46 PM
Another counterattack. There is an Iraqi force attacking south from Basra toward the Faw, apparently raising quite a ruckus in the British zone. I think they're toast. They've been moving under cover of a sandstorm, but there is, after all, an armored division in the area, and (according to Stratfor) JSTARS planes can detect targets through sandstorms and I don't think it's going to stop JDAMs. Chances are they're either aggressive and stupid, or things in Basra have gotten untenable enough that they'd rather face the Brits.
4:40 PM
The attempts by the 1st Marine Div. to move north along the Tigris from Al Qurnah seem to have been abandoned, according to a report from Stratfor. They say that all 3 infantry regiments of the 1st Marine Div. have shown up in and around Nasiriyah, and it is unlikely that the British will advance up the Tigris until Basra is handled. The Marines are probably going to push toward Al Kut from Nasiriyah, attempting to cut off the Iraqis south of the Nasiriya-Kut line. Seems like a case of reinforcing success to me. Mesopotamia (the area between the rivers) is broken and waterlogged in many places, not the place for a heavy mechanized division, but a good place for Marines. If they can destroy the Guard units standing in front of Al Kut, it'll be a heavy psychological blow to the rest of the Guard units.
1:21 PM
Counterattack! Stratfor reports that the "1000-vehicle" force moving south from Baghdad is trying to trap the 3rd Squadron, 7th Cavalry reccon unit that crossed the Euphrates yesterday. Under cover of storms that kept attack helicopters grounded, they're trying to bypass the B and C troops (company-sized units) and attack the Alpha troop that is guarding the river bridge. Cavalry units are fairly light units, and if they haven't been getting adequate support from the air, they might take some damage fighting off the heavier Guard force.. The 7th has been getting support from tactical aircraft, but that's not as good as the rotary-wing close support. There is reportedly another infantry brigade in the area, and I'm hoping they made it across the river in time to lend a hand. I haven't heard anything bad, so I'm hoping that they it's over and they've destroyed that Guard force.
11:01 AM
Tuesday, March 25, 2003
Stratfor confirms that the Marines are definitely across the river at Nasiriyah, probably headed for Al Kut, and also brings up the possibility that they have crossed in the south and are advancing up the Tigris. I still can't get a read on how firm that is. They also say that Karbala cannot be bypassed, and must be gone through. I don't think I agree with this analysis. I can't believe that those forces have just been sitting there in front of Karbala stationary for the last couple of days.
I'm starting to get that "breakthrough" sort of feeling...
3:39 PM
A report indicating that Marines, at least, are across the river at Nasiriya and probably headed for Al Kut.
The convoy of hundreds of vehicles including tanks, TOW missiles and armored personnel carriers was backed up along the road leading to a pontoon bridge, and Marines with scarves around their heads lay in the sand on either side of the line of traffic, pointing their M-16s toward the desert. Anyone who approached faced close scrutiny.
12:30 PM
I don't know how far to trust them but DEBKA appears to be saying that elements of the 3rd Infantry Division have bypassed Karbala and are swinging around Lake Bahr al Milh, while others have crossed the Euphrates at Nasiriyah and are headed for al Kut and a link-up with the Marines. Combining this with information from Stratfor, I would guess that the 3rd Bde, 3rd Inf. Div. is headed toward Al Kut along with up to a brigade of the 101st
Airmobile and a sizeable (division-sized?) Marine contingent from the 2nd Marine Div. to link up with the 1st Marine Div. coming up the Tigris. This should force one or two Republican Guard divisions to come out in the open and fight or be cut off. The 1st and 2nd Bde (and reccon and artillery elements), 3rd ID appear to be the central column bypassing Karbala either to the east or to the west.
DEBKA has also talked about another force I've been wondering about. There were a few tens of thousands of troops known to be moving through Saudi Arabia before the war started, and I've been wondering what they were up to. DEBKA claims that they're moving rapidly and in great secrecy toward an area northwest of Baghdad. Could this be the ever-elusive column of the 4th Infantry Division?
This all makes a great deal of sense to me. The time-honored traditional doctrine of the U.S. Army has been the "converging columns" strategy, a feature of almost every conflict since the Civil War and the Plains Indian campaigns. The recent advances in doctrine and technology actually reinforce this habit, by making it easier to control and support multiple forces while maximizing the shock value of the resulting confusion. I think they've purposely embedded reporters primarily with only the 3rd ID column and the 1st Marines in order to disguise the fact that they're doing exactly the same thing they always do--divide their forces and drive in to break up and concentrate against smaller portions of the opposition forces only at the last minute. In this case, the objective is to rapidly get between the Republican Guards and the inner core of Baghdad to prevent combat in the urban core of the city.
It's so goddamn predictable, it's amazing nobody ever, ever catches on.
UPDATE: Oops--apparently reccon elements of the 3rd ID have crossed the Euphrates at As Samawa, south of Najaf. This casts doubt on the bulk of the 3rd ID bypassing Karbala to the west--they might head up the east side of the Euphrates or join the drive toward Al Kut.
ANOTHER UPDATE: I didn't explicitly mention yet another potential "column". There are several airborne and airmobile units in Iraq, and they could drop in anywhere in Baghdad and attack from the inside. The Guard divisions in the suburbs could be caught between the armored anvil and the airmobile hammer.
10:39 AM
Another link worth keeping: The excellent historian and Daily Telegraph Defence Editor John Keegan has had regular commentary since the war started. UPDATE: Oops, the screwy Telegraph site fooled me. I changed the link to their front page--just go there and type "John Keegan" into the search box.
10:16 AM
More about the 1st Marine Division:
DEBKAfile also reports, albeit with their usual lack of concern for the details, that the 1st Marine Division is indeed across the Euphrates and headed up the Tigris toward Al Amarah. I speculated about this yesterday.
Click here for a battle map from DEBKA.
Here is a search link for all the reports filed by Matthew Fisher, the Canadian reporter embedded with the 1st Marines. He filed two today, and seems to have a penchant for riding with the foremost reccon elements. He's absolutely nuts. Keep an eye on this link. UPDATE: Note that the search engine is not scrupulous about putting the links in date order, so check the first several articles to find the latest reports.
10:13 AM
Things that make you go "hmm..." Both DEBKA and Stratfor are suggesting that the "accidental" missile attack on that Syrian bus may not have been an accident. Stratfor reports that Syrian volunteers are busing to Iraq to join the fight, and wonders if the destroyed bus may not be a rather forceful warning to the Syrian government to stay out of the war in every way possible. They also reported later information that it was actually a busload of Syrian emigrant workers trying to get home. DEBKA claims flat-out that it was a busload of Palestinians volunteering to fight, and that the F-15 that made the attack "made a piece of history; it carried out the first American air attack on a combatant Palestinian group. More will certainly be heard of this episode." I don't know how much faith to put in this report.
9:55 AM
Monday, March 24, 2003
Here's a story that I wasn't expecting. It's from a reporter embedded with a recon battalion of the 1st Marine Division. For the life of me, I can't figure out where he is. If they were inside the oil fields last night, and have moved on, then they might be over the Euphrates and driving up the Tigris valley toward Al Kut? Dunno, Stratfor says they're still south of the Euphrates, and have been stationary since Saturday at least. That'd be something if they are in a position to fall on Baghdad from the rear.
DEEP INSIDE SOUTHERN IRAQ - The triumphant road to Baghdad is littered with discarded combat boots and army uniforms, even hand grenades, as men from the Iraqi military throw away anything that could identify them as combatants.
7:35 PM
Stratfor's take on things so far in Iraq is that it's not clear that the psyops and decapitation strategy have worked at all.
U.S. military commanders continue to assure their troops and the international news media that Iraq's army is on the run. That might be accurate, but in the absence of massive surrenders by Iraqi forces in the south, another interpretation might be that Iraqi forces are retreating or going to ground. The move could be part of an Iraqi strategy to draw coalition forces close to Baghdad for an attack by elite Republican Guard divisions, while Iraqi security forces from the Kuwaiti border to Karbala attack U.S. supply and support forces over a 300-mile-long battlefield.
I'm not sure whether to agree with this or not. I am worried that political considerations have prevented the coalition from acting aggressively enough to break the will of the Republican Guard to fight. The armored force encountered near An Najaf seems to have been destroyed rather handily, but somebody's been doing a pretty good job of urban warfare in An Nasiriyah. I'm not sure if any major combat formations other than the 51st regular infantry at Basra and that RG armored brigade at Najaf have been destroyed. If the Iraqis start to get the idea that they are capable of doing effective damage to U.S. forces, they'll all really try, and it doesn't matter how they feel about Hussein. If that happens, we're pretty much screwed. I need to see some major units destroyed or captured before I'll breathe easier. On the other hand, the 7th Cav is about 50 miles from Baghdad at Karbala, and shows no sign of stopping. Franks hasn't bothered even to slow down to consolidate his forces. For the life of me I can't think of what he's going to do if he gets to Baghdad and there's no surrender. His strategic reserve seems to consist of 2 brigades of the 101st and one brigade of the 82nd, plus a few shadowy batallions in Turkey--maybe that's the elusive 4th Infantry, maybe not. Lots of airmobile stuff--maybe he's just going to toss them into the center of Baghdad and haul the government out by their ears. I hope he knows what he's doing.
UPDATE: There's also the 173rd Airmobile brigade in the northern Kurdish areas. I didn't count that as reserve, figuring they were already committed to the northern campaign, but maybe the Kurds with SF help are going to stay on the defensive, leaving the 173rd to be pitched into the fight in central Iraq.
10:24 AM
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