"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right."
---Robert Park
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MentalBlocks
Throwing Mental Blocks at Glass Constructions
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Thursday, March 20, 2003
Stratfor is reporting that French Interior Ministry officials say two vials of the poison ricin have been found in a locker at Paris's Gare de Lyon railway station.
Also, German forces have arrested 5 suspected Islamic militants.
Cooperation in the war on terror seems to be holding together.
2:10 PM
William Saphire is at it again, writing another column about a French company that sold a rocket fuel component to Iraq. Read the whole thing.
Let me supply Mr. Chirac with some documentation that the Inspector Clouseau in his foreign ministry cannot find.
On Aug. 25, 2002, e-mail went from the director general of CIS Paris to Qilu Chemicals in China regarding a preliminary order: "We are about to have one of our affiliates open a L/C [Letter of Credit] for an initial order of 20,000 kg. of sealant type HTBP-III. . . . The drums should have a label mentioning the nature of the goods, same as your sample: `modified polybatadiene [sic] sealant type III,' it is not necessary that the label shows the name of your company."
11:43 AM
Wednesday, March 19, 2003
Stratfor thinks that the first shots of the war were an attempt to assassinate Hussein.
In effect, the United States opened the war still looking for a political solution. It sought to kill Hussein and other leaders in the hope that this would lead to a new leadership that would quickly capitulate. In an odd way, this attack appeared to be the final attempt at a non-military solution -- understood as something other than an all-out war.
11:59 PM
Stratfor says that President Bush is tentatively scheduled to make a TV address at 9:00pm EST.
3:15 PM
The New Republic thinks that the rift between the U.S. and France/Germany is not going to go away as easily as some people think.
Somewhat ironically, then, the reason we may never be able to resume the relations we had with Germany, France, and Russia prior to the U.N. debate about Iraq isn't that these countries are deeply offended by Bush's unilateralism, as critics of the administration presume. It's that the president was deeply offended by their cynicism.
3:05 PM
What's up with this? The White House seems to be saying again that Iraq assisted with the 9/11 attacks. That's not the only legal justification for war, but it's odd they'd bring it up today.
Text of a Letter from the President to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate (2) acting pursuant to the Constitution and Public Law 107-243 is consistent with the United States and other countries continuing to take the necessary actions against international terrorists and terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations, or persons who planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001.
12:39 PM
Stratfor just sent out a war alert e-mail alert to subscribers. I'll copy the text below:
===============================================
Continuous, real-time monitoring, rapid analysis of military and
political developments, combat reports and breaking intelligence
available from Stratfor on its exclusive U.S. Iraq War web site.
Visit this web page for details.
http://www.stratfor.com/promo/?site=usiraq
===============================================
At 1808 GMT (1:08 p.m. EST, 9:08 p.m. Baghdad) B-52 bombers were
reported taking off from RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom.
Flying time to Iraq is about six hours. Earlier today, they were
reportedly loaded with cruise missiles. The British press has
also reported that skirmishing has commenced between Iraqi troops
and U.S. and British special operations forces near Basra.
Coalition aircraft also have attacked 10 Iraqi artillery pieces
in the southern no-fly zone, and Israelis have been ordered to
open and fit their gas masks, keeping them nearby at all times.
War has not yet commenced, but this is a war alert. More
information will be forthcoming as it is available.
UPDATE: I just did the math on the timing. A 6-hour flight would put the bombers in position to launch at approximately 3AM Baghdad time. That would be at about 7:00EST, 4:00PST.
12:29 PM
Tuesday, March 18, 2003
An interesting idea. Mike, a correspondent of den Beste, has noticed that the countries supporting the war in Iraq tend to be current or former maritime powers, and the countries opposing tend to be current or former land powers. Not a perfect predictor, but seemingly a higher correlation than other predictors. (Wonder how one would go about a statistical analysis of diplomatic positions.) Den Beste comments on this:
Is this coincidence? Nations which rely on navies usually build them to support and defend world trade; it represents a fundamentally different attitude about the world.
2:00 PM
Damn. Righteous fury.
10:44 AM
Ann Clwyd speaking for Indict, an organization collecting information with which to indict inividual Iraqis for war crimes and humanitarian crimes. Horrific stuff here.
The accounts Indict has heard over the past six years are disgusting and horrifying. Our task is not merely passively to record what we are told but to challenge it as well, so that the evidence we produce is of the highest quality. All witnesses swear that their statements are true and sign them.
For these humanitarian reasons alone, it is essential to liberate the people of Iraq from the regime of Saddam. The 17 UN resolutions passed since 1991 on Iraq include Resolution 688, which calls for an end to repression of Iraqi civilians. It has been ignored. Torture, execution and ethnic-cleansing are everyday life in Saddam’s Iraq.
I don't know if this sort of thing can really be ended the world over, but I'm beginning to believe it's time to try.
By way of Andrew Sullivan.
10:40 AM
Collin May thinks that the EU is dying, and I tend to agree. As he implies, it's the 1940's statist bureaucratic answer to the geopolitical problems of the 1930's, and they're just now getting around to implementing it. Doomed. Just doomed.
Europe is in the thralls of a major identity crisis. No longer able or willing to justify the continued existence of its nation states, it seeks to overcome them through the simplistic and intellectually slipshod construction of the EU. But as it stands, not a single European, be he intellectual, politician, journalist or archbishop can provide a shred of a rational reason as to why the EU deserves to see the light of day. Unfortunately, the EU benefits from this malaise as the European public is distracted with hopes of economic security and the enjoyment of perpetual though banal peace. There is a combination of numbed indifference and anxious frustration in Europe. To a large degree this accounts for the current rift between the US and Europe.
UPDATE: On reflecting for a few minutes, I should probably say that I hope the EU lives on in the form of the old Common Market or something. There's no doubt that it's been a good thing on that level. And I suppose the political structure could hang on as a living-dead zombie, the way the USSR did for 50 years, but I'm afraid the system is so deeply flawed that the whole thing is going to self-destruct sooner than later.
10:17 AM
Monday, March 17, 2003
From Andrew Sullivan, NPR's ombudsman uses coded language to admit that NPR primarily avoids airing conservative voices.
Part of the problem for NPR and for many listeners who look to us to reinforce their opinions is the range of "acceptable" opinion. Radio is a unique and intensely personal medium. People listen, in my opinion, in order to recognize an aural landscape that they know and feel is theirs. When they hear ideas or voices with which they disagree, they can feel a sense of betrayal.
That puts NPR in an awkward position. As an audio companion, NPR needs to remain recognizable to its listeners; but as a news service, it needs to present a range of opinions that reflects reality -- no matter how uncomfortable that reality may be.
5:24 PM
This is the voice of a man who think he's a winner.
Still, it was hard for CIA Director George J. Tenet to hide his optimism when asked during an encounter in the hallways of his headquarters last week whether he felt the agency had turned a corner in its effort to dismantle al Qaeda with Mohammed's arrest.
"It's a very, very big deal," he said. "He and the material he was apprehended with are extremely useful. It will . . . no, I can't say anything else."
With an exuberant swing of the arms and torso, and a big, wide smile, Tenet added, "It's a big deal," before scooting off down the white marble halls.
4:11 PM
Yeah, no Iraqi-Al Qaeda linkage here:
An alleged terrorist accused of helping the 11 September conspirators was invited to a party by the Iraqi ambassador to Spain under his al-Qaeda nom de guerre, according to documents seized by Spanish investigators.
By way of Instapundit.
3:53 PM
Best of the Web Today captures my thoughts pretty precisely on Rachel Corrie's death. (Can't tell yet whether to call it an accident or a homicide.)
It's a shame that Rachel Corrie died the way she did. It's shameful that she lived the way she did.
11:32 AM
You know you're about to lose when:
Iraqi dissidents turn to sabotage -- The Washington Times
The only area where Saddam can rely with confidence on the loyalty of his security forces is in the Ba'ath Party's heartland around Baghdad. In an attempt to reassert his authority, Saddam issued a directive last week ordering Iraqi officials not to give up their positions and flee the country.
11:25 AM
Ouch! Stratfor says that diplomacy is not the main reason for the delay in the war since last fall. The Army's top brass pulled a McClellan, asking for more and more heavy forces to be deployed, and then when those forces were granted botching the shipping schedule.
The White House has remained engaged in futile diplomacy -- not because it is enamored with appearing increasingly irresolute, but because it needed to fill time while the Army got its troops in place. Were it not for the fortunate bullheadedness of the French, the White House would have been reduced to staging Mariah Carey concerts to consume public attention. It simply was not in a position to issue ultimatums to Iraq before now.
Stratfor predicts that if the "shock and awe" advocates are correct and the Iraqi government and military folds quickly, Rumsfeld is going to have some brass heads on pikes outside his office. And the heavy infantry and armor divisions are going to be decreased drastically in the next restructuring.
12:47 AM
Zowie! That's all I can say about this DEBKA article. Just Zowie.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources, the conversation then turned to the underground bunkers where Saddam and his family planned to seek shelter from US bombs.
”How long do you think you can hold out there? Maybe four to six weeks, tops,” the colonel said.
”Don’t worry, when I have to get out, I will,” Saddam said.
”We all know that if you leave your shelter after the war begins, the people on the street and Iraqi troops will tear you to shreds,” the officer said.
Saddam replied with a dismissive wave of the hand.
12:36 AM
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