"Alas, to wear the mantle of Galileo it is not enough that you be persecuted by an unkind establishment, you must also be right."
---Robert Park
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MentalBlocks
Throwing Mental Blocks at Glass Constructions
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Friday, March 14, 2003
Stratfor says that Bush's new moves toward a "road map for peace" for Israeland Palestine are part of a quid pro quo with the Saudis for their cooperation during the Iraq war. Whether it's a quid pro quo or not, I think it's probably a good thing to lay out some carrot right before we use the stick.
2:27 PM
From Cox and Forkum:
12:45 PM
What sort of empire is it that is begged to continue occupying its "oppressed peoples"? James Taranto references another case of "Yankee stay here".
Opposition to U.S. troops in South Korea that seemed to be boiling over has quieted dramatically in recent weeks, because of new threats from North Korea and a suggestion from Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld that U.S. troops may be cut and repositioned.
At the end of the same link, Taranto goes into a nice rant against the extremists on the right and left who think that the Iraq war is all a Jewish plot.
12:14 PM
Thursday, March 13, 2003
Amygdala has some thoughts about that New Yorker article about Richard Perle. Though apparently not a Perle fan, he thinks Perle got rolled by the Saudis.
...what strikes me as what is going on here is, among other things, that Richard Perle was suckered into a Saudi Arabian financial honey pot ploy to get back at Perle for his political involvement in acts of hostility to the Saudi regime...
11:17 PM
A good article in the WSJ, explaining the nefarious ways in which WMD get to sanctioned countries.
"Contain" Iraq? Contain the tides. Even the White House misleads the American people by suggesting that if Saddam "fully" disarms, there will be no war. It knows the truth about proliferation's global addictions. Saddam will re-arm, and re-arm again, so long as oil flows beneath his feet.
10:02 PM
Smoking Gun! Again, not that it matters. Sigh. From Amiland, by way of Instapundit.
With regard to Iraq, 137 people are currently under investigation or have been accused. They come from 65 German companies where preliminary investigative proceedings are underway.
6:16 PM
By way of Instapundit, here's a Spectator review of The Battlefield: Algeria, 1988-2002.
Left to themselves, the Algerians in Roberts’s opinion could overcome the sustained misgovernment which is the root cause of their plight. He says, again no doubt rightly, that all Algerians long for a law-based society, and the recipe he offers for it — rather tentatively — is a return to the nationalism of their original revolt against France. Success for American policy in Iraq, and consequent failure of French policy, might allow Algeria to be among other countries to benefit.
I haven't had time yet to read the whole thing, but its thesis seems to be that the French have been prolonging the civil war in Algeria to further their goal of using the Arab in African countries to challenge the U.S. It seems worth reading the review, anyway.
2:09 PM
Oh, this is gonna hurt somebody. (By way of Best of the Web.) William Safire reports on The French Connection. Apparently, Iraq has purchased advanced rocket fuel materials from China, brokered by a French company, intended for new longer-ranged surface-to-surface missiles:
We're not talking about short-range Al Samoud 2 missiles, which Saddam is ostentatiously destroying to help his protectors avert an invasion, nor his old mobile Scuds. The delivery system for mass destruction warheads requires a much more sophisticated propulsion system and fuels.
If you were running the Iraqi ballistic missiles project, where in the world would you go to buy the chemical that is among the best binders for solid propellant?
Answer: to 116 DaWu Road in Zibo, a city in the Shandong Province of China, where a company named Qilu Chemicals is a leading producer of a transparent liquid rubber named hydroxy terminated polybutadiene, familiarly known in the advanced-rocket trade as HTPB.
But you wouldn't want the word "chemicals" to appear anywhere on the purchase because that might alert inspectors enforcing sanctions, so you employ a couple of cutouts. One is an import-export company with which Qilu Chemicals often does business.
To be twice removed from the source, you would turn to CIS Paris, a Parisian broker that is active in dealings of many kinds with Baghdad. Its director is familiar with the order but denies being the agent.
Do read the whole thing.
12:39 PM
Good one from Lileks.
Would they trust the opinion of anyone who was swayed, at this late date, by a handwritten sign waved by a stranger on the sidewalk? Your crudely written slogan has confounded my worldview! Tell me more about this refusal to exchange petrochemicals for circulatory fluids.
12:14 PM
Wednesday, March 12, 2003
Porphyrogenitus sez:
So, when it comes right down to it, who'd you rather see on "our team"? Chiac, Schroeder, Putin, and Le Ping? Or Tony Blair, Eli Wiesel, Vaclev Havel, and Lech Walesa?
11:13 PM
As blogged by Instapundit, Daniel Drezner talks optimistically about democratizing Iraq.
9:23 PM
This story about a press conference with the commander of the main heavy armored division tasked with driving north from Kuwait makes me feel a little better.
A reporter asked him about what has been presumed the nightmare scenario -- taking Baghdad by arms. "I feel confident that, with the mechanized forces we have, we'd be able to do that very successfully," Blount said, in his low, almost monotonal voice. A reporter asked him about the dangers of chemical or biological attack. He said that this was his "biggest concern," but "if it happens, we're very well prepared for it." A reporter asked him what worries keep him up at night these days. He said, "I sleep pretty good at night."
I wish I were as confident as he seems to be.
3:55 PM
Walter "Jacksonian" Mead weighs in with a WaPo editorial saying continued inspections and sanctions are "Deadlier Than War".
Those who still oppose war in Iraq think containment is an alternative -- a middle way between all-out war and letting Saddam Hussein out of his box.
They are wrong.
3:48 PM
Oooo, this guy is evil. In a good way. (As pointed to by Instapundit.)
1:23 PM
Shrinking the gap. Somebody in the Pentagon is awake.
What stands in the path of this change? Fear. Fear of tradition unraveling. Fear of the mullah’s disapproval. Fear of being labeled a “bad” or “traitorous” Muslim state. Fear of becoming a target of radical groups and terrorist networks. But most of all, fear of being attacked from all sides for being different—the fear of becoming Israel.
And:
Show me a part of the world that is secure in its peace and I will show you a strong or growing ties between local militaries and the U.S. military. Show me regions where major war is inconceivable and I will show you permanent U.S. military bases and long-term security alliances. Show me the strongest investment relationships in the global economy and I will show you two postwar military occupations that remade Europe and Japan following World War II.
12:18 PM
Innocents Abroad writes about how the French are ignoring their own interests. This is a pretty cool blog, BTW, at least one of them is a Canadian student of (history?) in Paris.
The point to both articles is that Jacques Chirac is putting on a show, one that ignores France’s real interests (which in this case would be to express moderate displeasure with a US invasion but to abstain during a vote at the UN Security Council) while sweeping its financial problems under a convenient rug provided by the rest of Europe’s nations. I suspect it is a game France will come to regret.
Update: Oh man, I almost missed this part of the article.
And this leads me to ask one simple question of the Commissioner: Did the European Commission have permission from the UN in the summer of 2000, when it provided funds to the International Committee of the Red Cross to purchase six ambulances for transfer to the Palestinian Red Crescent which were subsequently used to transport weapons for attacking Israelis?
What am I talking about? I’m talking about my former period of employment with the fundraising division of the International Red Cross in Geneva.
11:04 AM
Ha! By way of Instapundit:
Fur flys on the catwalk - smh.com.au
Jean Paul Gaultier must have been tipped off that the anti-fur protesters were going to target his fashion show because he was certainly ready for them.
When the first one jumped onto the runway in Paris on Saturday he got a surprise. Two security guards immediately leapt aboard and wrapped him in a big fur coat, before dragging him off.
The picture:
9:55 AM
Tuesday, March 11, 2003
Good work from the Post. "without a strategic decision by Saddam Hussein to fully cooperate, it is not possible even to locate Iraq's most deadly weapons, much less ensure disarmament."
That Iraq's dictator has failed to make that decision has been obvious since Dec. 8, when he submitted a declaration to the Security Council asserting that he had no chemical and biological arms. You don't have to listen to the Bush administration to regard that as a lie; even French officials say they believe Iraq still has those arms. The declaration served to detach the inspection process from reality. The inspectors have been put in the position of verifying that Iraq has no weapons -- by definition an impossible task -- rather than overseeing the destruction of those that exist. The only exceptions are the few score surface-to-surface missiles that Iraq could not avoid declaring -- but the lethality of these arms is minor compared with the probable hidden stores of anthrax, sarin and VX nerve agent.
6:37 PM
Good point. The coalition is the same or bigger, but its enemies are willing to go farther to defeat it. The difference is that now it's clear that America is going to wield its power to enforce some rules, and the rule-breakers are running scared.
Fair Weather Bipartisanship
But the "small coalition of nations"--34 at last count--that Daschle finds underwhelming is larger than the one that supported Clinton in 1998. Then as now, France, Russia, and China opposed doing anything about Iraqi intransigence. And then, as now, several allies supported our efforts. Most of the countries that supported President Clinton in 1998 support President Bush today--the notable exception being Germany.
The difference comes in support from allies in the Gulf. In 1998, of Saddam's neighbors only Kuwait backed strikes against Iraq. Our current effort has been endorsed not only by Kuwait, but Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Big difference. Even Jordan, which didn't back President Clinton in 1998 and sat out the first Gulf War, has made noises about supporting Saddam's ouster.
4:30 PM
Update: I made this post referring to a New Yorker article that talks about Richard Perle's potential conflicts of interest. David Frum does a pretty good job of pounding on that article here. I still say I want to keep a sharp eye on Perle, Wolfowitz, etc. Especially once they get a few successes under their belts.
4:12 PM
Blogging is probably going to be light for me the next few days. I'm busy, and anyway I don't trust much of the news that's coming out right now. Is Turkey in, or out? Where is the 4th Infantry Division? What will happen in the UNSC, and can the U.S. timetable stand being delayed by a month? Dis-information operations are bound to be flying fast & thick at the moment. I'm just trying to digest the big picture now. And worrying. Lots of worrying.
1:47 PM
Ouch! A flashback to last October, and DEBKA's take on the treatment of terrorist groups during a francophone summit.
DEBKAfile - Chirac Honors Nasrallah, Preaches Human Rights
In a typical two-faced maneuver, the French president was able to declare war “without mercy” on terror and on the same occasion honor the Hizballah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, by inviting him to the opening session of the Francophone summit. With unashamed cynicism, the conference organizers seated the head of one of the most lethal terrorist groups in the world among the senior religious ministers invited for the occasion. The French speaking bloc of nations thereby elevated Nasrallah’s group, the Hizballah, to the rank of a new religion.
1:42 PM
I don't even know where to begin excerpting this piece. It touches on a lot of the points I've been thinking about. I don't agree with some of the conclusions, but I do agree with this statement:
The war with Iraq will constitute one of those momentous turning points of history in which one nation under the guidance of a strong-willed, self-confident leader undertakes to alter the fundamental state of the world. It is, to use the language of Hegel, an event that is world-historical in its significance and scope. And it will be world-historical, no matter what the outcome may be.
1:07 PM
Monday, March 10, 2003
This is great. Dissent in the heart of Baghdad, and "it's driven by a heavy metal beat". From Hit & Run, read about The Black Scorpion of Baghdad.
5:27 PM
Things that make you go hmmmm.... I don't want to go too far on the basis of nothing but an apparent conflict of interest, but this bears watching. I do believe that Perle, Wolfowitz, & Co. will go too far one of these days, and I want to be aware of it when it happens.
When Perle was asked whether his dealings with Trireme might present the appearance of a conflict of interest, he said that anyone who saw such a conflict would be thinking “maliciously.” But Perle, in crisscrossing between the public and the private sectors, has put himself in a difficult position—one not uncommon to public men. He is credited with being the intellectual force behind a war that not everyone wants and that many suspect, however unfairly, of being driven by American business interests. There is no question that Perle believes that removing Saddam from power is the right thing to do. At the same time, he has set up a company that may gain from a war. In doing so, he has given ammunition not only to the Saudis but to his other ideological opponents as well.
5:19 PM
Awesome stuff from a letter to David Frum. Referring to a statement made by former Democratic Senator Daniel Moynihan during an interview:
Senator Moynihan was then asked, 'How good were Carter and Clinton?' And this is what he said: 'Carter's a good man. Washington was a bit more than he was ready to handle. That hostage-taking in Tehran did him in. It could have happened to any president. I don't need to talk about Clinton. You know all about him.'
4:57 PM
You can add Japan to the list of nations supporting the war in Iraq. According to Stratfor (subscribers only.):
Japanese media have reported that Tokyo intends to announce its firm support for the attack on Iraq immediately after the first bombs fall, after all chances of a peaceful settlement have been exhausted. Japan then will provide troops and finances to support Iraqi refugees displaced by the war. Tokyo also is mulling the deployment of the Ground Self Defense Forces to guard U.S. military installations in Japan, acting on a new law passed as part of defense reform following the September 2001 attacks in the United States.
3:29 PM
Will an invasion come after the fact?
Ananova - Saddam Hussein statues destroyed
Three statues of Saddam Hussein have been destroyed in Kirkuk, the oil-rich city in the north of the country.
The destruction of the statues is considered by local residents as the beginning of an internal uprising against Hussein.
From Instapundit.
11:25 AM
Smoking guns do grow on trees!
Times Online
Details of the orders emerged as the United Nations declassified a report on Iraq’s prohibited weapons programme. Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector, said there was “credible information” that Iraq never destroyed 21,000 litres of biological warfare agents, including 10,000 litres of anthrax, stored during the 1990 Gulf war. There was also “credible information” that Iraq had 7,000 litres more biological warfare agents in bombs and warheads than it had declared.
11:01 AM
"A chemical attack is guaranteed." So says a defected Republican Guard trooper, seemingly a low-level officer. Gee guess they'll be using those chemical weapons they claim they don't have...
"A chemical attack is guaranteed," he warned.
"We have been fully provided with complete protection gear, gas masks, first aid kit, injections."
9:38 AM
Smoking Gun! Not that it matters.
UN finds Iraqi missile designed to strew chemical bomblets - smh.com.au
A United States official said that Iraq at first told inspectors the rocket was designed as a conventional cluster bomb, which would scatter explosive submunitions over its target, and not as a chemical weapon. A few days later, he said, the Iraqis conceded some rockets might have been configured as chemical weapons.
Might have been?
8:57 AM
Good words for a good point.
Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall
Even now, I think it's right to say that Saddam is contained. But how long can we contain him? We have 250,000 troops on his borders. It's taken that much to squeeze this grudging level of compliance out of the regime. How long can we maintain that? At how much expense? At how much diplomatic and cultural collateral damage, as we managed to build up during the first decade of containment?
I don't say these are in themselves justifications for war. But it is not enough simply to say you oppose war. That statement brings with it a responsibility to say what the proper policy is or would be. If you think Saddam is contained now then it's incumbent on you to say how you imagine perpetuating that state of affairs into the future. And what the costs will be to your policy.
12:53 AM
Oooo, good stuff. And in the NYT, too. By way of Today's War Is Against Tomorrow's Iraq
So, as we look to the future, we must stop debating whether invading Iraq will result in our being worse down the line than we are right now. We do not have the option of holding time still — which exposes the biggest flaw in the "Why Rush to War?" argument. The urgency lies in the fact that every day Saddam Hussein stays in power he grows richer, the global terrorist network to which he has access plans further atrocities and (international inspections notwithstanding) the chance of his acquiring nuclear, chemical and biological weapons grows. To avoid Parmenides' Fallacy, the question we must ask is: Will we be better off in the future if we invade Iraq or if we do not invade?
12:10 AM
Sunday, March 09, 2003
Ouch! The truth hurts. From InstaPundit.Com.
Yes. The U.N. has made a lot of new enemies, and appalled a lot of its old friends. If its chief role is to serve as a forum for French efforts to feel important, then the U.N. will be no more important than France itself.
12:40 PM
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